No one ever thought the Brady Act was a magic bullet. But a study co-conducted by a Duke professor shows the law has done even less than many people hoped: It has not been a factor in reducing gun-related homicides nationwide, according to the study.
Conducted by Philip Cook, ITT/Sanford Professor of Public Policy Studies, and Georgetown University public policy professor Jens Ludwig, the study was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association Aug. 2. At the time of the Brady Bill's passage, 32 states, including North Carolina, did not already have the background checks and five-day waiting periods that the bill required. These states were treated as the experimental group in the study, while the other 18 states were treated as a control group.
Although the study showed that the number of homicides in America decreased overall since the law was implemented, it did not decrease any faster in those states that previously did not have background checks and waiting periods. Non-gun homicides also decreased at approximately the same rate as gun-related homicides.
The law did have one positive effect, according to Cook and Ludwig: The number of gun-related suicides decreased 7 percent more in the experimental group than in the control. Cook said the study showed the waiting period may have helped reduce the number of suicides nationwide by giving people "a chance to reconsider." However, this part of the act no longer exists-when the bill was passed, it included a provision to remove the waiting period requirement by 1998 to mollify Republicans who might have voted against its passage.
The act did not put any restrictions on private transactions or gun shows-hence its ineffectiveness, said Cook. It did keep more than 40,000 people with prior felony convictions from buying guns from licensed dealers, but unregulated secondary markets such as gun shows and private transactions did not necessarily turn away these consumers. An earlier study conducted by the two professors found that 30 to 40 percent of guns are bought in these markets.
"Criminals who use guns typically do not buy them from a gun store or a gun dealer. They get them on the black market...," Cook said. "It seems to me the Brady Act was a good idea that did not go far enough."
Cook said those sales should be regulated, with a gun dealer always required to serve as a middleman. "That would at least, in terms of law, close this huge loophole," he said. "The slogan of the day is, 'We have enough gun laws, all we have to do is enforce them.' But those laws are partial and incomplete, and they don't cover most of the transfers."
Gun-rights advocates countered that Cook's favored policy of regulating secondary markets is targeted toward the wrong people. David Kopel, research director for the Independence Institute-a conservative think-tank-said people planning to use the guns to commit crimes would simply skip the paperwork and buy a gun illegally.
"The only secondary sales you'll ever control are the ones conducted by law-abiding citizens," said Kopel, who characterized himself as "pro-Second Amendment."
He added, however, that he was not surprised by the study's conclusion. "I think [Cook] was basically right...," he said. "It's entirely consistent with what people said about the Brady Bill before it passed."
Other experts who praised the study also disagreed with Cook's views. "It was a great study. It was impeccable," said New York University law school professor Jim Jacobs. But Jacobs added that no policies will ever fully remedy the problem of gun violence.
"Maybe regulation makes us feel better, but we waited too long and it's too late," he said. "You can't get the genie back in the bottle."
Not all the data from the study were released to the public. Cook and Ludwig also analyzed data for gun-related robberies and assaults, but Cook said they declined to publish those findings because the data, which were collected by police departments across the country, were probably inaccurate.
Much of the data were also irrelevant, Cook said-about half of all robberies are committed by people under 21, who can not buy guns legally and thus would not be affected by the Brady Act.
In addition to the study, Cook and Ludwig have also written a book called "Gun Violence: The Real Costs," which will be published by Oxford University Press in late September. It examines the effects of gun-related violence on the American standard of living.
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