Each day leading up to the first round of the NCAA tournament, The Chronicle will preview one of the four regions in the bracket, touching on the true contenders in the region and potential bracket-busting Cinderellas. We start in the South:
The No. 1 seed: Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia owns the best defense in college basketball, and it is not too close—the Cavaliers allow only 53.4 points per game, while second place Cincinnati sits well behind at 57.1 points allowed per game, and third place Central Florida cedes an astronomical 61.7 points a contest. To complement the suffocating defense, Virginia plays at the slowest pace in the country. According to basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy, Tony Bennett’s squad is dead last in adjusted tempo.
The Cavaliers have successfully lulled nearly all of their opponents to sleep this year, and captured both the ACC regular season and tournament title. Don’t let Virginia’s low scoring outputs lead you to believe they lack star power, as the top-seeded team is star-studded.
Guard Kyle Guy made the All-ACC first team, and Isaiah Wilkins secured ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Wilkins is perhaps the best defender in the entirety of the nation, as he is tops in defensive box/minus and third in defensive win shares.
In what is certainly the best Virginia team in Bennett’s tenure, the Cavaliers hope to get over the proverbial hump and reach their first Final Four since 1984. Absolutely, Virginia is the favorite to advance outside of the South region. If they can play at the slow pace that they have mastered, the Cavaliers should have no issue grinding out a trip to the Final Four.
The other contenders: Defensive juggernauts galore
The South region is where offense goes to die.
As if Virginia didn’t impose enough of a threat to opposing offenses, Tennessee and Cincinnati, who round out the South’s top three seeds also rank in the top four for defensive efficiency. The Volunteers and Bearcats fit a very similar profile to the Cavaliers: elite defensive, slow tempo, and veteran leadership, despite no big names. Cincinnati may be a bit overrated as a two seed, as they are just 2-3 against other tournament teams, and could be a frequent pick to be upset.
Kentucky and Arizona are certainly interesting for their potential to advance out of the South region. For one, the pair of Wildcats possess what the higher seeds do not: reliable scoring and supremely gifted athletes.
DeAndre Ayton of Arizona and Kevin Knox of Kentucky are two of the best freshmen in the country. Additionally, both teams are coming into March Madness hot after failing to reach the lofty expectations initially set for them, as Arizona and Kentucky each successfully captured their respective conference tournaments.
The potential Cinderella: Loyola-Chicago
The Ramblers utterly dominated the Missouri Valley Conference on their way to a conference title. Loyola-Chicago led the conference in virtually every category, including points per game, points allowed per game, field-goal percentage, and three-point field-goal percentage.
Don’t let their 11-seed or their lesser-known conference fool you, as Porter Moser’s squad is an absolute force: they are No. 22 in RPI, and have a 5-1 record against top-100 RPI teams in 2017-18. The Ramblers’ first taste of the NCAA Tournament in over thirty years could be a long stay, and it would be no shock to see them in the Sweet Sixteen.
The regional narrative: Take it slow
Don’t expect to see any run-and-gun affairs from the South. None of the top six seeds, in Virginia, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Arizona, Kentucky, or Miami rank in the top 150 in adjusted tempo, according to Pomeroy's calculations. Anticipate a lot of half-court sets and strong defense.
Three of the nation’s four most efficient defenses lie in the South. The ubiquity of slow paces and strong defenses could open the door for a lower-seeded team that can quicken the speed of play with an offensive blitz, such as Nevada, to make a run.
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