Andrew Levy, a blog columnist for the Blue Zone, examines prop bets for Duke's contest against Northwestern on Saturday.
Over/Under 3.5 points for Northwestern in the fourth quarter
Unbeknownst to many, Duke has held opponents scoreless in the fourth quarter in each of their last six games. Their ability to clamp down on offenses at the end of games gives them the ability to either pull away or as for the case of the Wake Forest game last year, stage a comeback. Although Northwestern scored a garbage time touchdown against Duke in 2017, I expect this year’s matchup to be much closer.
Pick: Under
Over/Under 88.5 yards for Jeremy Larkin
Last week, Northwestern opened up the season with an impressive road conference win over Purdue. The biggest x-factor going into this season for the Wildcats was whether the school’s all-time rushing leader Justin Jackson could be replaced. Against Purdue, Jeremy Larkin answered the bell in a hostile environment, running for 143 yards on 26 carries. However, last year Northwestern struggled mightily running the ball against the Blue Devils, only gaining 22 yards on 21 carries. Larkin himself received 6 carries and ran for a putrid 18 yards. Although it is almost impossible for Northwestern to repeat that type of futility this year against Duke at home, I predict that Duke’s experienced defense will succeed in limiting the run game.
Pick: Under
Duke +2.5 vs Northwestern
The similarities between these two programs over the last 10 years are eerie, as both have an esteemed academic record and relatively little football history, playing spoiler in powerhouse conference. The similarities end there as the playing styles of Duke and Northwestern differ significantly—the Wildcats are a team that likes to pound the ball on the ground in their pro style offense while the Blue Devils prefer to run wide-open spread sets. These schemes seem to favor a defense such as Duke that returns five of its six top tacklers, including preseason All-ACC linebacker Joe Giles-Harris. The underdog in the Duke-Northwestern matchup has won against the spread 4 of the last 5 times. While I do not expect a repeat of last year’s blowout, I think that Duke will control the game and ultimately win outright.
Pick: Duke
Record Against the Spread in 2018: 1-0
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