Coming off a statement win against then-No. 11 Clemson Sunday, No. 5 Duke returns home to face Louisville Wednesday night in the first game of a two-game homestand. The Blue Zone gives three keys to victory for the Blue Devils.
Keep the defense rolling
The most obvious weakness with this season's Duke team has been clear throughout the campaign: defense. The Blue Devils have one of the most talented offenses in the nation yet they've struggled to develop any sort of consistent cohesion on the other end of the floor. However, that narrative has changed in Duke’s past three games, particularly in back-to-back performances against Virginia Tech and Clemson in which the Blue Devils held their opponents to under 60 points. Head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s new 2-3 zone defense seems to have turned around a team that many thought would be doomed by poor discipline on the defensive end.
Wednesday’s home matchup against Louisville will be the perfect opportunity for Duke to prove that this renewed defensive focus is here to stay. Deng Adel returned for the Cardinals last week in their loss to North Carolina, and will present a challenge for the Blue Devils down low in the frontcourt alongside fellow forward Ray Spalding, who had his ninth double-double of the season against the Tar Heels. It hasn’t been announced yet whether Marvin Bagley III will be suiting up for Duke, but if he does, it will be interesting to see how he fits into a new defensive scheme down low that has blossomed while he has been sidelined with a mild knee sprain.
Take care of the ball
Since giving the ball up 18 times against St. Johns, the Blue Devils have done a good job of taking care of the basketball, exceeding 12 turnovers in just one of their four games since, when they gave up 13 against Virginia Tech. Duke has averaged just 12.2 turnovers per game, but will have to be particularly careful with the ball against the Cardinals.
No team in the ACC has averaged more steals in conference games than Louisville, which has collected nearly eight per contest. The Cardinals had eight takeaways in their loss to North Carolina, and have reached at least nine steals seven times in conference play. Further, Louisville is not prone to giving the ball up themselves, ranking just better than the Blue Devils in turnovers at 11.9 per game. For Duke to avoid a shocking home upset, it will need to make sure it doesn’t suffer any lapses in ball control against a team that has proven it will jump on an opponent’s carelessness.
Create open looks in the lane
Louisville ranks third in the nation in blocked shots, thanks largely to Adel and Spalding, as well as senior forward Anas Mahmoud, who is eighth in the nation in blocks per game with 3.08. As a team, the Cardinals have blocked 6.5 shots per game, and recorded six blocks against North Carolina.
The Blue Devils have also been a force in the paint all season, led by Bagley and fellow freshman Wendell Carter, Jr. If Bagley is absent again Wednesday, sophomore Marques Bolden will likely join Carter matching up against Louisville’s formidable frontcourt. Given the chance to play more in Bagley’s absence, Bolden has not made a huge impact offensively, but came up with some clutch plays towards the end of Sunday’s win against Clemson. If Duke can continue its success in the paint and overcome Spalding, Adel and Mahmoud, the chances for a Cardinals upset are slim.
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