An election to remember

What has arguably been an interesting election culminated today in the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States of America. Though many ordinary Americans, on Duke’s campus and beyond, probably wish to move on from political drama of 2016 and relegate it to the backlogs of their Facebook feeds, for others the work has just begun. With the recent presidential election now relegated to the status of “history,” political scholars and historians can now begin the process of assessing the historical and political legacy of 2016.

In American history, certain elections in particular hold significance as milestones in the democratic process. The election of 1980 signaled the rise of the so called “Moral Majority” demographic among the Republican voter demographic, while the election of 1960 introduced televised presidential debates. Future scholars will no doubt debate and come up with their own unique interpretations on the causes and legacy of this year’s presidential election. The implications of this scholarship will have far reaching effects from influencing future presidential elections to providing DBQ prompts for AP U.S. History exams.

Certainly scholars will focus on how 2016 transformed particular norms and precedents of the electoral process and two-party democracy. Academics will question how 2016 altered notions of party solidarity: throughout the election many Republicans defected from party lines over Trump’s nomination while many left-leaning Democrats sided with outsider pseudo-socialist Bernie Sanders over party favorite Hillary Clinton. They will consider the causes behind the abrupt shift in this election from focusing on political issues to personal gossip—best exemplified by the media’s extensive coverage of Trump’s many shocking statements. Pundits will also continue to assess the shift in voter demographics of this year’s election. Just like the election of 1968 that gave the rise the Republican “Southern Strategy,” 2016 has notably shifted voter demographics over party lines. African Americans, Latino and Asian American voters have continued to support the Democratic party disproportionately, while the blue collar, white working class (a historically Democratic stronghold) has coalesced around the Trumpian Republicanism. Along the lines of gender and politics, academics will surely consider the impact of Trump’s blatantly misogynist statements on the female voter demographic.

On a more international level, future textbooks may place the U.S. 2016 presidential election within the context of rising nativist minded politics worldwide. Trump’s nationalist and xenophobic political campaign has been echoed in flavor across the Western democratic world. Right wing political leaders worldwide such as Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen, have all adopted anti-immigrant, isolationist rhetoric to varying degrees of success. Just as the 1930s signaled the rise of fascism across the Western world, perhaps this decade will be contextualized within the rise of xenophobic politics.

Of course, historians will also examine 2016 through a technological lens, considering how the rise of social media has affected this year’s presidential election. They will have at their disposal entire libraries of tweets Facebook posts and other valuable historical documentation all digitally preserved. Commonplace political discussion was once ephemeral. Today it is forever cemented in the backlogs of Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for future scholars’ use.

Ultimately, historians studying the 2016 presidential election may not have a clear consensus on the legacy of 2016. The meaning of this year’s election as well as the Trump presidency that follows will continue to be debated. Scholars and all, however, will indubitably agree that the election and its raucous lead-up will leave a permanent mark on America as a country and a democracy.