No. 4 Duke is halfway through its ACC slate and has already had plenty of ups and downs to this point. The Chronicle's beat writers break down some of the most pressing questions as the Blue Devils get set to host No. 10 Notre Dame Saturday.
At 6-3 in conference play and two games behind No. 3 Virginia, what are Duke's chances of making up the deficit and notching its first ACC regular season title since it shared it with Maryland in 2010?
Bobby Colton: It looks very unlikely that Duke will be able to wrest the regular season title from Tony Bennett's Cavaliers. Virginia's schedule the rest of the way is quite frankly too easy. A home and home with Louisville could very well produce a loss, but losing both to Rick Pitino's club seems unlikely for a Virginia team that has looked as strong as it has this year. Besides the Cardinals, the Cavaliers only go on the road to N.C. State, Wake Forest and Syracuse, none of whom are likely to make the NCAA tournament. The home slate isn't any harder, featuring only dates with Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Florida State and Virginia Tech. For Duke to earn a share of the regular season title it would have to beat North Carolina both home and away, take care of business against Notre Dame this Saturday, and have Louisville win a pair of exceedingly difficult games against the No. 3 team in the nation. I'm not putting money on all that happening.
Ryan Hoerger: I don't like the Blue Devils' chances, because the Cavaliers aren't the only team Duke is staring up at in the standings. Virginia plays No. 9 Louisville twice and has to go to Syracuse, but other than that the Cavaliers should suffocate their remaining opponents. The Notre Dame game is big for both teams, as a Fighting Irish season sweep would give Mike Brey's team a big leg up on Duke with a favorable schedule down the stretch. The Blue Devils have Notre Dame, Syracuse—twice—and North Carolina—twice—in a backloaded conference slate. To win the regular season crown, Duke likely can't lose again, and I don't see that happening.
Amrith Ramkumar: Anything is possible given how tough the ACC has been, but I would have to agree and also say not good. The Blue Devils control their own destiny regarding whether or not they can pass North Carolina, but would need an ideal scenario involving Louisville, Notre Dame and Virginia to play out, in addition to a few surprise upsets. Duke could still notch its first ACC tournament win since 2011, but right now a regular season title—even a share—seems very unlikely.
With the dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon, the Blue Devils have several concerns going forward—depth, free-throw shooting and perimeter defense, just to name a few. Which is the most pressing concern?
BC: I would argue that with his 66.7 percent clip Sulaimon wasn't exactly helping at the charity stripe, but moving forward that is the team's biggest concern. Perimeter defense is going to be hurt by Sulaimon's absence, but between Matt Jones, Justise Winslow and the surprisingly capable play of Quinn Cook, Duke will survive defensively. As for depth, Matt Jones has been picking up the slack off the bench for Sulaimon and then some. Since Sheed's dismissal, Jones is averaging 10.0 points per game, compared to the 7.5 Sulaimon was putting up this season.
But the free-throw shooting, that remains a disaster. On the floor in crunch time against Georgia Tech, when the Yellow Jackets needed to foul, were Matt Jones, Grayson Allen and Justise Winslow. Jones has just 22 free-throw attempts this season, and I think most fans would be shocked he's shooting even 72.7 percent. Allen is a good shooter but has only 17 attempts in college and is not really the guy you want with the game on the line. And Winslow is arguably the worst free-throw shooter on the team, managing a miserable 57.6 percent on 85 attempts. It's only a matter of time before teams start employing a "hack-a-Duke" strategy, and when they do, the Blue Devils will be in trouble.
RH: Depth is my main worry for Duke moving forward. Matt Jones has played well of late, and a healthier Justise Winslow has injected some much-needed toughness and speed in transition, but the Blue Devils will all have to play big minutes the rest of the way. Can Marshall Plumlee and Grayson Allen establish themselves? Can Jahlil Okafor carry the team if the guards go cold from outside? Playing with eight guys is tough enough, but an injury could really put the season on the line.
AR: Depth is a short-term concern in that if the Blue Devils have foul trouble or an injury, they could lose to inferior opponents and take a few more losses than expected. But long term, I have to agree with Bobby, free throw shooting at this point with Duke's eight scholarship players is the biggest on-court factor that could threaten the team's postseason chances. When three of your starters shoot less than 60 percent from the stripe, it can be extremely tough to close out games. And with Blue Devil opponents seeing how teams can bother Jahlil Okafor with physical double teams, it would not be surprising to see the tactic employed heavily down the stretch this season.
Duke blew out Boston College in its ACC opener, but has had to fight pretty hard in every game since. Have you been surprised by how tough the ACC has been so far this year?
BC: It's not a surprise at all. Not only is the ACC arguably college basketball's best conference, but Duke always has a target on its back. The Blue Devil faithful get psyched up for the North Carolina game, but every single other ACC school gets hyped for Duke. There is a whole lot of talent in the conference, and all of that talent is at its absolute best when the Blue Devils are on the schedule. That's what makes the ACC so exciting, and what makes Duke, Duke.
RH: No. Louisville's arrival this season was supposed to make the ACC the scariest league in the land on paper, and I'd say it's lived up to that billing on the court. Virginia returned so much depth that we knew they'd be good, and Notre Dame has been so impressive on the offensive end. Miami as a sleeper team could cause some damage in the postseason, as the Blue Devils know all too well. But even with how strong the league is at the top, there have been some disappointments, namely Pittsburgh and Syracuse.
AR: Absolutely not. Many have been surprised by how hard teams like Georgia Tech and Wake Forest have pushed Duke, but even the teams at the bottom of the standings have the talent to play with almost anyone in the country on a good day. After realignment, it was advertised that the ACC was going to be as tough as the old Big East, and so far it has lived up to the billing.
Blue Devil freshman center Jahlil Okafor has continued to dominate and ranks in the top five in the league in points per game, rebounds per game and field goal percentage, but has some competition for ACC Player of the Year. Out of the quartet of Jerian Grant, Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Lacey and Terry Rozier, who poses the biggest threat to steal the award from Duke's big man?
BC: Jerian Grant. And it's not stealing it from Okafor, it is completely and wholly out-playing the freshman phenom. Don't get me wrong, Okafor is one heck of a player and deserves every bit of praise he's getting, but for some reason Grant has managed to fly beneath the radar despite being the heart and soul of a top-10 team. His 17.3 points per game is good for fourth in the ACC, which is impressive in it of itself.
Then consider that he's a guard shooting 50.7 percent from the floor and still is handing out a league-best 6.4 assists per game. That is truly incredible. And in case you thought he was only a one-way player, Grant is fourth in the ACC with 1.8 steals per game as well and grades out as his team's best defender by win shares in ACC play according to College-Basketball Reference. So I'm not taking anything away from Okafor, but we all need to sit up and take notice of just how good Grant has been this season.
RH: Out of this list, I'll take Grant—watching him take over the game against Duke in South Bend sold me on his greatness—but I think you also have to give some love to Malcom Brogdon or Justin Anderson from Virginia. Yes, the Cavaliers play a true team brand of basketball so their individual stats aren't eye-popping like the numbers for the rest of the guys on this list. But those two players are Virginia's unquestioned leaders, and if Tony Bennett's team wins the regular season title for the second year in a row, it'd be hard not to give one of them the hardware.
AR: Right now, it appears to be a two-man race with Grant and Okafor and as Bobby said, Notre Dame's lead guard seems to have his nose in front at the halfway point in conference play. But I'm going to disagree with Ryan a bit here and say that Rozier actually has the best chance to emerge as a dark horse candidate. The Louisville guard is leading the conference in points per game at 18.5 and adds 5.5 boards and 2.1 steals per contest. The Cardinals have two games against Virginia and one against Notre Dame remaining, so if Rozier continues his recent strong play—he has scored than 20 points in his last three games—this two-man race could get a bit more complicated.
Four of the Blue Devils' nine remaining ACC games are against No. 12 North Carolina and Syracuse—how do you think Duke matches up with both teams and what are you most looking forward to seeing from the contests?
BC: Duke should split with North Carolina home-and-home, and take both games from Syracuse. North Carolina is a very, very good team, but Duke's new zone defense should work pretty well against a team that struggles to shoot mightily. But the Tar Heels are so long with Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson and J.P Tokoto, that they should muck up Duke's passing-predicated offense, and Kennedy Meeks can make life very difficult for Okafor in the paint. As for Syracuse, that's now a demoralized team who won't be playing in the postseason. Rakeem Christmas is very talented, and should provide big problems for Duke both offensively and defensively. But with that said, Duke is simply the much better team. No game is easy in the Carrier Dome, but the Blue Devils should still be able to pull away and win in the tough venue.
RH: It's going to be strange to watch a Duke-Syracuse game without Rodney Hood and Rasheed Sulaimon. Jim Boeheim's club always has length in that 2-3 zone, so how the Blue Devils attack it with Jahlil Okafor will be an interesting matchup. With the exception of Marcus Paige, the Tar Heels can't match Duke's perimeter shooting, so I'm interested to see if Duke goes zone against North Carolina like it did against Louisville.
AR: North Carolina is one of the most fascinating teams in the country because of its immense talent and inconsistency. The Tar Heels still don't seem to know who they are at this point in the season, but their ability to get up and down the court and the emotion of two Duke-Carolina rivalry games should make for some high drama. Marcus Paige and Tyus Jones are also two of the most clutch players in the country as the point guards for both teams. As far as Syracuse goes, the Blue Devils haven't had to rely on a zone offense consistently, so it will be really interesting to see the chess match between close friends Mike Krzyzewski and Jim Boeheim, especially if Duke also elects to play zone. The low-post matchup between Christmas and Okafor won't hurt the contests, either.
Finally, the question we've all been waiting for. What is the Blue Devils' record in their final nine regular season games and record entering the postseason?
BC: This one is tough. I'll go with 7-2. A loss at North Carolina should be expected, so there's one. Hosting Notre Dame is no easy task either, though with revenge on the mind the Blue Devils should win this weekend. Even though I think Duke will win at Syracuse, it's by no means an easy game. And given the trouble the Blue Devils have had with Wake Forest, N.C. State, Miami and Georgia Tech, it seems almost a given something will snap in one of these remaining games and Duke will suffer an extra loss. Besides, the extra loss could be good for a young team that needs to make sure it takes nothing for granted heading into the postseason.
RH: I'll say 7- 2 as well. Florida State, Clemson and Virginia Tech should be routine—although Georgia Tech showed us Wednesday that there may be no such thing in the ACC—and I think Duke protects home court against North Carolina, Notre Dame and Syracuse. The Tar Heels may edge out the Blue Devils in Chapel Hill, and I'll take one as a trap game—most likely the Feb. 14 contest at the Carrier Dome.
AR: For a change, I'll be a bit optimistic and say 8-1. After watching Duke storm back at Virginia and seeing how well Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook performed once again under the bright lights, I think Duke will be really motivated for primetime games against Syracuse and North Carolina. The Blue Devils also have shown no fear on the road, so although I think they lose a game at some point, with Justise Winslow's resurgence I like their chances to finish strong despite their lack of depth.
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