With Rasheed Sulaimon being dismissed from the team, three of The Chronicle's men's basketball beat writers come together to answer the pressing on-court questions that now face the Blue Devils.
Noting that we have yet to see them play, does the Sulaimon dismissal drop Duke out of the national championship discussion?
Bobby Colton: Absolutely not. How can anyone say that Duke's championship hopes are dashed by losing a guy averaging 19.3 minutes a game? Was Kentucky ruled out when they lost Alex Poythress—a better player than Sulaimon, most would argue? Duke will miss Sulaimon's defense, ability as a distributor behind Cook and Tyus Jones, and his scoring capabilities, but they are just as in the discussion for the national championship as they were yesterday. The thing that would knock them out of the discussion is being embarrassed in Charlottesville Saturday.
Amrith Ramkumar: I don't think it drops Duke out completely, though it decreases the odds significantly. Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook were likely to play big minutes in the backcourt anyway in big games—as they did Wednesday when they combined for 78—but Sulaimon's dismissal means the team has almost no margin for error against top competition. It's hard to see how the Blue Devils get bench points with Grayson Allen's inexperience and Matt Jones' inconsistent shooting, which could make it tough for the team to put together a deep run given injuries or foul trouble. Ultimately, winning a title is about putting together six solid performances and getting hot at the right time, so Duke can still do it—the road will just be much tougher.
Ryan Hoerger: Sulaimon has really been the only bench player to consistently leave his mark on the offensive end for Duke this season. With his 7.1 points per game out the door, the Blue Devil bench becomes an even larger question mark. After Semi Ojeleye transferred in December, Duke was left with just nine available scholarship players, and now that number is down to eight. Like Amrith mentioned, Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones will play huge minutes from here on out, so you have to worry about fatigue setting in later in the season. The starting five is more than talented enough to make a run to Indianapolis, but Sulaimon's dismissal leaves the Blue Devils short another offensive weapon.
How important was Sulaimon to Duke's on-court success and how do they move forward rotation-wise?
BC: Sulaimon's impact was important, but not vital to Duke's on-court success. He was shooting just 38.6 percent from the floor in ACC play, and for the season has been a detriment at the free throw line. His turnovers have also been sky-high at times for a player on the floor for less than half the game. Yes, Sulaimon's ability as a bench scorer will be sorely missed, but there are ways to replace him. First and foremost, Duke needs Matt Jones to rise to the occasion offensively. He's been a quietly good 3-point shooter this season (37.2 percent after a recent slump), despite most fans having a Josh Hairston-esque response whenever he rises from deep. Jones has also been showing a recent willingness to attack the basket, which has admittedly been met with inconsistent results, and he has started really crashing the offensive glass. After Jones, Duke needs Grayson Allen to be basketball ready. The precocious neophyte has played just 17 minutes in ACC games this season, and a full 40 percent of his points this season came opening night against Presbyterian. However, we know Allen has the athletic ability to wreak havoc getting into the lane, and has shown a competent touch from beyond the arc in limited action. The real question is whether Allen can handle the rigors of the ACC after sitting idle for so long.
AR: The Houston native was inconsistent, but provided a much-needed scoring punch off the bench, so on the court he was still extremely important. The Blue Devils played their best game of the season Dec. 3 at then-No. 2 Wisconsin and Sulaimon was a big reason why, as he had a season-high 14 points on 5-of-8 shooting. At 6-foot-5, he was also one of the team's best perimeter defenders, so even when his shots were falling he could give any of the starters a much-needed blow. The path forward rotation-wise is pretty clear, as Matt Jones and Grayson Allen will be the only guards off the bench that can be used to spell Tyus Jones, Cook and swingman Justise Winslow. Expect Jones and Cook to continue playing big minutes and Matt Jones and Winslow to rotate if the freshman's injuries persist, but regardless, Duke will likely miss Sulaimon's nine double-digit scoring games this year.
RH: Better than anyone on the team, Sulaimon could break down his defender off the dribble, particularly with a head of steam. And at 40.4 percent from behind the arc, he was Duke's best 3-point threat by percentage. With the junior out of the picture, we may see opponents force Matt Jones to prove himself as a deep threat before they crowd out on him. That could impact the opportunities for Jahlil Okafor in the middle. Of course, the biggest wild-card in all of this is what the Blue Devils get from Grayson Allen, who has played just 17 of 280 possible minutes in ACC play. Matt Jones likely takes over Sulaimon's sixth-man role moving forward—he was first off the bench Wednesday at Notre Dame—but Allen will certainly get the chance many fans have been hoping for as early as Saturday at No. 2 Virginia.
What are the chances that Duke comes out as a better team without Sulaimon?
BC: Well that's pretty hard to answer without knowing the full story of Sulaimon's dismissal. If he really was as big a distraction as some have said, then maybe the team can focus and come together before a grueling matchup with undefeated Virginia. But barring some Josh Smith leaving the Pistons magic, Duke will be worse without Sulaimon. There is no reliable scoring punch off the bench, no auxiliary ball handler should Cook or Tyus Jones find foul trouble, and one less veteran to guide a team that has four freshmen in their eight scholarship players. It may be tough sledding for Duke the rest of this ACC schedule.
AR: Not good. This doesn't mean the Blue Devils can't still accomplish their goals this year (see above), but they are definitely better with an explosive sixth man than without one. Even with Sulaimon's occasional bad shots that stunted offensive growth, he still provided another weapon to space the court around Jahlil Okafor.
RH: None chance. When he made good decisions and played under control—which admittedly was not always the case—Sulaimon could affect the game in ways that no other player can. His offensive production will be missed, but so will his effort to apply effective ball pressure at 6-foot-5, making it difficult for ball-handlers to see passing lanes. Spreading his minutes around may not produce the same results, and could create fatigue problems late in games in the backcourt.
Who—if anybody—will step into Sulaimon's role as an offensive spark off the bench?
BC: Is nobody too depressing of an answer? Offense just isn't Matt Jones' game, and encouraging him to put the ball on the floor like Sulaimon rather than being a catch-and-shoot threat is just asking for trouble. So I guess the only other answer is Grayson Allen, because the answer sure as heck isn't Marshall Plumlee. Allen will need to overcome his apparent fear of being benched every time he steps on the court (he looks over his shoulder to the bench after every missed shot), and if he is aggressive and just plays within himself he can be effective. Fans have been clamoring for more Grayson all season, so here is their chance. We're all rooting for the fourth freshman to be as productive as his three classmates.
AR: Matt Jones. Jones will have to try to find different ways to score because of his limitations offensively, but he is still capable. The DeSoto, Texas, native is a streaky shooter, so making hustle plays and consistent cuts will be key if he wants to occupy Sulaimon's role as the primary scorer off the bench. Jones has never needed to consistently score to this point in his career for Duke to win, but the sophomore is a more likely candidate than Allen or big man Marshall Plumlee. The reality is that there is now no player on the Blue Devil bench who can consistently get his own shot, but Jones is the best option of the three.
RH: Matt Jones had already carved out a role for himself and has had some memorable offensive moments—see his crucial 3-pointer at Wake Forest Jan. 7—so I'm going to go with Allen. Jones will slide into Sulaimon's role, but Jones doesn't have his explosiveness. We know that Allen has all sorts of athleticism and a smooth 3-point stroke; we just haven't seen him respond in a pressure environment yet.
With Sulaimon gone, how will the Blue Devils handle teams with a size advantage at shooting guard?
BC: Well, they haven't really been using Sulaimon against any shooting guards. According to Ken Pomeroy, Sulaimon has only played six percent of the team's shooting guard minutes and 21 percent of the team's backcourt minutes total. Rather, he's been used as a small forward next to Cook and Tyus Jones while Justise Winslow and Amile Jefferson take reps at the power forward. So the easy answer will be to just keep on keeping on with Quinn Cook. He's had some very nice defensive games against bigger guards—Temple and Stanford come to mind. Jerian Grant is simply a different animal, as a player who should be getting way more buzz for player of the year. So moving forward it will be Cook guarding most 2s, with Matt Jones or Justise Winslow taking the assignment if it is a particularly lethal scorer who has given Cook fits. This aspect of Sulaimon's absence should be of the least concern.
AR: With Sulaimon gone, Duke will likely have Matt Jones playing big minutes and a variety of zone and man looks in place to try to slow down bigger guards. Most of the Blue Devils' issues with perimeter defense have not come from a lack of size, but a lack of consistency and commitment to keeping opponents in front, so Sulaimon's absence shouldn't change too much schematically on the defensive end. Duke will just need to execute better than it has so far in ACC play.
RH: A secondary concern here is what lineup the Blue Devils trot out when forced to play small. Against Notre Dame last night, head coach Mike Krzyzewski used both Matt Jones and Justise Winslow at the four at times, with Cook, Sulaimon and Tyus Jones taking the guard spots. With Sulaimon gone, Matt Jones takes over at the three and Winslow stays at the four. If Winslow gets banged up again or put in foul trouble, there's not a good lineup for Duke to play small.
With the team coming off a loss and facing No. 2 Virginia Saturday, how will the young Blue Devils handle this news and perform in Charlottesville?
BC: It's just so hard to predict. After needing a heroic comeback to topple St. John's and then blowing a lead against Notre Dame, the Blue Devils should be hungry to prove they should still be considered an elite team. But now we must find out if the distraction that Sulaimon was in the locker room is bigger than the distraction his conspicuous absence creates. This is a very close-knit team, and having trouble befall a friend can be difficult to deal with. Either Duke will go out and win one to prove the doubters wrong, or it will fold the way it did the last time the team went to Charlottesville.
AR: I expect Duke to come out fired up and hungry as they did Jan. 17 at then-No. 6 Louisville. How that translates in terms of a result will have to be seen, but I still expect another hard-fought battle and would be shocked if the Blue Devils lay down against the No. 2 team in the nation. The fact is Duke still has plenty of talent on its roster to compete with anybody in the country and desperately needs a win, so I still expect a good performance despite the distraction.
RH: With Virginia's length and defensive stinginess, I wasn't high on Duke's chances even before yesterday's news. With a loss, the Blue Devils are right back to .500 in the ACC, with chances of a regular-season title all but over. They know that, and I expect a motivated Duke squad to make the trip north Saturday. The Blue Devils are bigger than just Sulaimon, but it will take a herculean effort to topple the Cavaliers in Charlottesville.
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