Ahead of the Blue Devils' ACC opener Saturday against Boston College, The Chronicle's beat writers take a look at the season thus far and offer their predictions for the rest of the season.
Team MVP:
Daniel Carp: Can there be another answer to this question? Justise Winslow packed an early scoring punch, Quinn Cook has provided the leadership and played the best basketball of his career but Jahlil Okafor is the reason the No. 2 Blue Devils head into ACC play a perfect 12-0. Okafor's candidacy for MVP—as well as National Player of the Year—extends well beyond his 18.8 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and mind-blowing 68.5 percent clip from the field. In addition to being the reliable low-post scorer and rim protector that Duke has lacked for a number of years, Okafor has found a way to make every player around him better, whether that means freeing up space for Amile Jefferson to pick up some easy points in the paint or finding Cook and Tyus Jones with pinpoint passes out of double-teams for open threes. In the rare moments when the lethal Blue Devil offense has stalled, teammates look for the freshman from Chicago and he hoists his team onto his 6-foot-11 shoulders. No need to reinvent the wheel with this pick.
Bobby Colton: There's no question Okafor has been Duke's best player this season, and he is probably the sexy pick for MVP. However, I'll go with Quinn Cook. Shrewd, clever and quick, the senior guard has been playing the best ball of his career this season. His 14.5 points, 1.3 steals and 1.2 turnovers per game are all career-bests, as are his 49.6 percent, 40.3 percent and 95.8 percent clips from the field, the 3-point arc, and the free throw line. As for the intangibles, Cook, along with Jefferson—another very worthy candidate for MVP—has been responsible for keeping a young Blue Devil roster focused and motivated through the grueling early-season schedule. Okafor, Winslow and Jones grab the headlines, but the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic MVP has also been the team's MVP to date.
Ryan Hoerger: Okafor has powered Duke down low all season, but I don't think the Blue Devils come away with wins against Wisconsin and Connecticut—maybe even Michigan State—without the play of Tyus Jones. The Apple Valley, Minn., native has shined brightest on the big stage, pouring in 60 points in those three contests. He's also put together a 3.7 assist-to-turnover ratio as a true freshman—that's incredible. Jones certainly picks his spots offensively, but his ability to facilitate the offense and his chemistry with Okafor have been critical to Duke's 12-0 start.
Amrith Ramkumar: I'll keep it simple and just go with the Chicago native. The rest of Duke's starters have all had great moments, but Okafor sets up everything the Blue Devils do on both ends of the court. Jones' assist-to-turnover ratio as a true freshman is extremely impressive, but so is Okafor's 68.5-percent shooting percentage even with double teams and physical play. At 6-foot-11, his vision and ability to set up teammates with pinpoint passes has also made the game much easier for the rest of his teammates and his soft touch and arsenal of post moves have been as good as advertised. The only disappointing aspect of Okafor's game so far has been his 50-percent conversion rate at the free throw line.
Biggest surprise:
DC: Duke's trio of freshman starters has been unsurprisingly successful, but the play of senior point guard Quinn Cook has been arguably just as impressive as the Blue Devil diaper dandies. Heading into the season we were asking questions about whether Cook and Tyus Jones could coexist in Duke's backcourt, and after the senior came off the bench in the team's two exhibition games it was unclear whether the team captain would crack the starting lineup on opening day. Cook has done an excellent job blocking out the noise and leading an inexperienced Blue Devil squad while expanding his game and becoming a significant threat playing off the ball—the result is career-bests in scoring, shooting and the fewest turnovers since his freshman season.
BC: Marshall Plumlee made his first 11 free throw attempts of the year. Yes, you read that correctly, a Plumlee was shooting 100 percent from the free throw line on December 29. Of course, Plumlee missed two of four against Toledo after the original writing of this piece, which takes some of the surprise value away, but it's still a pretty shocking development. After coming to campus in Fall of 2011, Plumlee didn't hit his first free throw until Jan. 25, 2014. He missed his first 15 career free throws, which isn't a ton, but is still significant. Now, all of a sudden, he's Duke's marksman from the line. If that isn't the biggest surprise then I don't know what is.
RH: The play of freshman Justise Winslow, particularly early in the season. The Houston product scored in double-figures in his first five games, stealing away some of the spotlight from Okafor and Jones. At 6-foot-6, Winslow's athletic build makes him an excellent slasher, and the freshman has turned in several highlight-reel plays. The freshman is averaging 12.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, and his continued production will only make it harder for teams to double Okafor down low, especially if Winslow can start to heat up from behind the arc.
AR: Duke's dominance. The Blue Devils have played a very difficult schedule to this point, but have trailed for less than six minutes of game action through 12 games. Duke has also won each of its game by 10 points or more, so although the Blue Devils have been in close games late, they have not had to overcome sizable second-half deficits. Given Duke's talent level, it is not that surprising that the Blue Devils are undefeated, but Duke's players other than Okafor have also been extremely inconsistent on the offensive end, so its streak of dominance has been.
Biggest disappointment:
DC: I'm disappointed that we haven't gotten to see more from the fourth member of Duke's freshman class. With six players vying for three spots in the Blue Devil lineup, I understood opportunities for Grayson Allen would be scarce but I had thought he'd see more minutes in nonconference play. Not only is the freshman from Providence, Fla., a human highlight reel, he's the type of streaky scorer that could be the spark Duke needs should the offense go ice cold on a winter night during ACC play. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Allen come out of nowhere and steal a conference game for the Blue Devils, but after going the entire month of December without playing double-digit minutes I'm not sure if he has the experience he'd need to pull off such heroics.
BC: Semi Ojeleye's transfer to SMU is up there, but that's got less to do with this year's team and more to do with the future of the Blue Devil roster. I'd say the biggest disappointment is the team's lackluster performance against Elon in mid-December. Simply put, 17 turnovers against an inferior team like that is unacceptable. Now the question is what caused the sloppy play. Could the freshmen be tiring from the crazy schedule, having no prior experience to the NCAA slate? Could the team be complacent after its big win against Wisconsin? We don't know what caused the uncharacteristically shoddy play, but Coach K and the rest of the staff must figure it out before the conference slate begins. The team turned it on late against Toledo, but the team's inauspicious start shows they still may be missing that fire in the first half.
RH: There aren't a lot of things to complain about with a team that has strung together 12 consecutive double-digit wins. But with so many blowouts, I'm somewhat surprised that walk-ons Sean Kelly and Nick Pagliuca haven't seen more action. The duo has combined for just 14 minutes; Kelly hasn't played since the Fairfield game Nov. 15. Opportunities for playing time will be harder to come by beginning Saturday with ACC play, meaning Kelly will have to make the most of his chances to collect his first college basket.
AR: Free-throw shooting. Duke is shooting just 69.3 percent from the free throw line, tied for the 152nd-best clip in the country. Okafor, Winslow and Jefferson are all shooting less than 61 percent, so the Blue Devils could see teams start fouling their frontcourt on purpose as conference play gets going. Although Duke is shooting 52.9 percent from the field—the second-best percentage in the country—and a respectable 38.2 percent from 3-point range, the Blue Devils have shown vulnerability at the charity stripe. Of Duke's players that have played in every game, only three—Cook, Plumlee and Tyus Jones—are shooting 72 percent or better and it is doubtful that Plumlee can continue his early-season precision from the line.
Biggest storyline:
DC: Big things come in small packages. After Austin Rivers, Kyrie Irving and Jabari Parker combined to win just two NCAA tournament games, it appears Duke may have found its secret recipe to developing a championship-caliber teams around presumed one-and-dones. The Blue Devil trio of Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow—who have displayed their incredible chemistry from day one—were teammates for years in the USA Basketball system, and it has definitely helped Duke gel as a team more quickly in the early-going. After struggling with stability when focusing his team around one freshman star, Coach K may have found a system that works best for him.
BC: Mike Krzyzewski's quest for 1,000 wins. The freshmen is a good story and all, but let's not forget about the man who makes the magic happen. At 995 wins, Krzyzewski is fully expected to be coaching for number 1,000 when the Blue Devils travel to Louisville to take on the Cardinals January 17. Two Hall of Fame coaches, two teams that met just two years ago in the Elite 8, and two national title contenders. You can't ask for a bigger game than that one. And if the Blue Devils take care of business against Boston College, Wake Forest, N.C. State and Miami, then that's exactly the game we'll be treated to.
RH: How do you shut down Jahlil Okafor? That's the million-dollar question for head coaches in the ACC, since nobody in nonconference play seemed to deploy anything to successfully slow down the freshman, who's averaging 18.8 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. The center feasted on smaller defenders when facing man-on-man coverage, and passed out well when second defenders came to double him. If a coach can devise a gameplan to limit Okafor down low, the Blue Devils may see it over and over again the rest of the year.
AR: Freshmen making the game more fun and easy for veterans, not the other way around. Okafor, Jones and Winslow have seemed unflappable and allowed veterans like Rasheed Sulaimon, Jefferson and Cook to flourish. Duke also seems to have one of its more closely-knit squads in recent years, something Krzyzewski has referenced several times when talking to the media. Despite the pressure of always having a target on its back and helping Krzyzewski reach an incredible milestone, the freshman trio has transitioned better than most could have imagined. The Blue Devils have faced adversity in games, but there has been no news of players having conflict with one another or caring about anything other than winning.
Pressing concern:
DC: Even though Semi Ojeleye wasn't playing significant minutes, heading into ACC play with only nine available scholarship players is a bit scary. Even though all nine are players that head coach Mike Krzyzewski is comfortable putting out on the floor, the prospect of going nine-deep with just three players larger than 6-foot-6 could be troublesome. This lack of depth is exacerbated by the fact that Duke relies so heavily on freshmen that have never played such a long and physically demanding schedule. Should the Blue Devils fall victim to foul trouble on the road—or worse, an injury—a short bench could present a major challenge.
BC: The bench play. And this isn't because of Ojeleye's absence. This is because the bench put up zero points against Connecticut. When taking a longer look at the unit, there is no true playmaker. Cook and Tyus Jones are both excellent distributors, but with both starting there isn't a point guard for the second unit. Sulaimon is doing what he can as a facilitator, but he is best served as a scorer and is out of his element being asked to play point guard. There are good pieces on this bench, but for the pieces to be effective they need the help of someone from the starting lineup to play the catalyst.
RH: The Blue Devils got a long lay-off before its Dec. 18 against Connecticut, one of Duke's shakier performances this season. Part of that could be rust, but part of it could have been the peskiness of the Huskies on the defensive end. That's what concerns me moving into 2015—Duke's ability to handle scrappy defensive teams. The defending champions forced the Blue Devils into an uncharacteristic 19 turnovers, despite the sure-handed backcourt of Cook and Jones logging heavy minutes. Louisville and Virginia play similar hounding defenses that could throw Duke out of rhythm—how do the Blue Devils respond?
AR: Stopping dribble penetration. Since the Wisconsin game, Duke has struggled to keep talented opposing guards from getting into the paint and making plays. The Badgers' Traevon Jackson, Connecticut's Ryan Boatright, Elon's Luke Eddy and Toledo's Julius Brown all hurt the Blue Devils and found points in the paint by attacking off the bounce rather than throwing the ball into the post. Jones and Cook keep Duke's offense operating like a well-oiled machine most of the time, but in a conference featuring talented guards like Marcus Paige, Malcolm Brogdon, Terry Rozier and Sheldon McClellan, the duo will have to show it can keep opponents in front without relying on Okafor's assistance in the paint for the Blue Devils to continue their success.
Game you are looking forward to:
DC: Duke's road contest against Louisville is getting some well-deserved hype, but I'm gearing up for the Blue Devils' matchup with No. 3 Virginia in Charlottesville on Jan. 31. It's about time a traditional ACC power outside of Tobacco Road has asserted itself on the national stage, and Tony Bennett's Cavaliers are a tough, veteran squad and one of the country's best defensive teams. This should be a really hostile road environment for Duke, and a physical Virginia frontcourt could be Jahlil Okafor's toughest matchup of the season.
BC: No question the Louisville game for all the reasons mentioned above. The game at the KFC Yum! Center will be Duke's biggest test until the NCAA tournament. Side note: the KFC Yum! Center is the most ridiculous name for an arena ever.
RH: Like Bobby, the Louisville game has been circled on my calendar since the schedule was released. I'm also looking forward to a road game two weeks later, when the Blue Devils head to Charlottesville, Va., to take on No. 3 Virginia. The Cavaliers are the reigning ACC champions and despite losing Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell haven't seemed to lose a beat. Virginia held Harvard to eight points in a half in December, making the Jan. 31 matchup a battle of excellent defense against Duke's potent offense.
AR: Obviously games against Louisville, Virginia and North Carolina jump out, but I'm also really looking forward to watching Duke play at No. 14 Notre Dame Jan 28. The Fighting Irish are the only team in the country shooting a better percentage than the Blue Devils, beat Duke in South Bend, Ind., last year and will get the Blue Devils in the middle of a three-game stretch featuring a game in New York against No. 15 St. John's and the road battle against the Cavaliers. Many college games seem to turn in to foul-fests ruled by officials with little offensive flow, but Duke-Notre Dame has a chance to be one of the most entertaining games of the year. Fighting Irish head coach Mike Brey is also a former Blue Devil assistant.
NCAA tournament prediction:
DC: This is likely the most talented Duke team of the last 10 years, and anything less than a Final Four appearance at this point would be incredibly disappointing. In my eyes, advancing to the national title game will rest on whether the selection committee pits the Blue Devils on the same side of the bracket as Kentucky, which is the only team in the nation with more top-to-bottom talent. At this point, who isn't silently hoping for a championship game matchup between the Blue Devils and Big Blue?
BC: Boy is it hard not to be optimistic about this year's team. As the beat writer who has been ridiculed for my negativity for the past two years, I'm tempted to keep the tradition alive. But this team just feels different. I see Duke playing in the national title game with a chance to raise a fifth banner into the rafters.
RH: Duke has been incredibly impressive through 12 games, winning all games by double-digits. I can see the Blue Devils marching through to Indianapolis and the Final Four, which has been good to them in tournaments past. Kentucky presents a tremendous obstacle, however; the size and length of the Wildcats across the board could spell the end of the line for Duke if the teams collide in the title game.
AR: Like Bobby I'm known for my pessimism but it's hard to predict anything less than a title game appearance at this point. Okafor seems to be getting better each game and is also developing a knack for getting opposing big men in foul trouble. Right now I have the Blue Devils losing to Kentucky in the title game also, but Duke's brutal ACC schedule could still expose flaws in this year's squad and there is still a lot that can happen before tournament time rolls around. Teams like Wisconsin and Arizona are flying under the radar nationally because of the dominance of the top two teams but have the talent to prevent the matchup everyone wants to see.
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