As the Blue Devils ring in the New Year, what better time to take a look at some resolutions the basketball players might make for 2011? Using two of the most basic advanced stats, it's pretty easy to take a look at which players are doing their part--and which could do more. The two relevant statistics here are "offensive rating" and "possession usage." I'll let Ken Pomeroy, one of the best basketball stat gurus around, explain these stats better than I ever could:
Offensive rating: Offensive rating is a measure of an individual player’s efficiency. In its simplest form, it’s points produced divided by possessions used. If you want to know more than that, you must read Dean Oliver’s Basketball on Paper. Otherwise you’ll have to take my word that the formula is about as good as it gets for assessing personal efficiency based on the stats that are recorded.Possession usage: A measure of personal possessions used while the player is on the court. Simply assigns credit or blame to a player when his actions end a possession, either by missing a shot that isn’t rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. 20% is average, and 25% indicates a go-to guy. 15% is a player with a limited role in the offense.
So here's the 2010-2011 Blue Devils, in handy chart form:
So, what does this show us? The top right quadrant is players with offensive ratings above 110, and usage rates over 20%. Basically, these guys are producing a lot per possession, and using lots of possessions. That's a productive combo.
Move to the top left, and you're looking at guys that produce a lot per possession but don't use that many possessions. It's not always automatic that these guys should simply start using more possessions, since a big part of efficiency is good shot selection. But when we make our resolutions, we might find that some guys can start to look for more offense.
The bottom-left quadrant shows good role players; they aren't generating huge scoring per possession, but they know their limits and aren't using many possessions either. And the bottom-right is the guys who aren't producing much but still use lots of possessions. It's a testament to Mike Krzyzewski and his staff that there are no players in this quadrant. The coaches help players to learn their roles so well that no one is currently trying to play above their capabilities by using lots of possessions without being efficient about it.
So what does this tell us about how players might look to improve in 2011? Here are some suggestions:
Mason Plumlee: Work on free-thr0w shooting until blue in the face. It's no surprise to see the workmanlike Josh Hairston and Miles Plumlee in the bottom-left quadrant, but it is somewhat odd to see Mason down there, seeing as he's started a majority of the season and often scores double digits per game. But his abysmal performance at the free-throw line (40.5% so far) really drags down his efficiency. If he can't start making free throws, he's not going to fulfill his potential as a go-to big man.
Andre Dawkins: Don't be afraid to look for your shot. It's impossible to expect Dawkins to keep up his lights-out shooting (65.5% on two-point shots, and a remarkable 53.2% from beyond the arc), but it's clear from the earlygoing that the kid can shoot. He's also shooting better than 80% from the line, and takes excellent care of the ball (just eight turnovers in 318 minutes played). His offensive rating currently ranks second in the entire nation, yet he ranks second-to-last (above only Tyler Thornton) on the team in usage rate. The laws of averages are almost certain to bring his shooting percentages and efficiency numbers down, but he'll still rate as an excellent shooter who can resolve to be a bigger cog in the Blue Devils' offensive machine.
Ryan Kelly: If Mason Plumlee can't keep his resolution, step up and take some of his possessions. Coach K would probably recoil at the notion of one player "taking possessions" from another; this is a team game after all. But Kelly's offense is far more efficient than Mason's, and the team might benefit from more Kelly. While the two forwards are shooting essentially the same percentage from two-point range (Plumlee 56.9% to Kelly's 56.8%), Kelly's adding three-point range (42.1%) and free-throw shooting (85.7%). Kelly is not in Mason's league when it comes to rebounding, but on offense, Kelly's broader skill set gives him a leg up.
Seth Curry: Get to the rim and finish better. Curry can help the team out more as well, and he could become a much bigger offensive force if he can keep his New Year's resolution. He's shooting the lights out from three (43.5%) and making his free throws (88.5%), but has made just eight of his 30 attempts from inside the three-point arc (26.7%). He's been a pesky defender, leading the team in steals, and he's committed just 12 turnovers despite playing significant minutes at point guard, so if he can just start converting from close in, he can really start to make a star-level impact.
This isn't to say the other guys on the roster can't improve, but these four have shown the potential to really make the leap to stardom if they can make some adjustments to their games. If one or more of these players steps up and keeps his resolution, that would go a long way toward papering over the absence of Kyrie Irving and keeping the Blue Devils where they expect to be--at #1--through at least March of the New Year.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.