With a strong anti-incumbent sentiment in the electorate and the GOP expecting significant losses in local and congressional races across the country, North Carolina provides an interesting paradox.
In Raleigh, the dominant party is not the Republicans, but rather the Democrats. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Mike Easley is leaving office after two terms, and since 1901, only two Republicans have held the state's top post. In a year when the presidential nominee from the Democratic party may win the state's 15 electoral votes for the first time since 1976, Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue and Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory are in a statistical dead heat, 49 to 48 percent, according to a Nov. 3 report from Public Policy Polling.
"In the past, people have voted Republican at the presidential level and voted Democrat at the state level," said John Aldrich, Pfizer-Pratt University professor of political science. "That may be because the people of North Carolina vote on a different set of issues on the state level than the national level, or that Democrats on the state level are more moderate than their national counterparts."
Aldrich said Democrats' strong national showing could help Perdue only if voters are focusing on the same issues at both the state and national levels. North Carolinians have traditionally voted Democratic on state issues like employment, education and infrastructure, whereas they usually prefer the Republican stances on national issues such as taxes, abortion and gun control, Aldrich said. He added that this tendency by voters to distinguish between N.C. Democrats and national Democrats could downplay the benefit Perdue will receive from Obama's popularity in the state.
"McCrory is pretty moderate for a N.C. Republican and he makes his case more effectively than Republicans have in the past," Aldrich said. "Part of Perdue's problem is the way she presents herself as not as engaging as former governors. She has been hammering McCrory on a small number of things and her negativity is not helping her."
Further complicating the race is the candidacy of Libertarian nominee Michael Munger, chair and professor of the political science department. His performance in state-wide polls was sufficient to qualify for participation in televised debates with McCrory and Perdue-the first time in state history.
"I don't know the best way to judge the impact of Munger's candidacy on either one of the two other candidates," said David Kochman, spokesperson for the Perdue campaign. "If it is helping people become excited about the process, then we feel it is a good thing."
Despite the fact that Munger is far behind his rivals in the polls, many see his candidacy as a major step for the Libertarian party in North Carolina.
"This race is going to allow the Libertarian party to focus on 2010 and 2012 races, and not on the signature drives needed to get on the ballot," said Munger campaign manager Barbara Howe.
"We will start immediately on organizing county parties and running candidates for city councils and county boards and state senate and house races," she said.
In accordance with North Carolina election laws, if Munger receives at least 2 percent of the popular vote, Libertarian candidates will automatically qualify to be placed on the ballot through 2012.
The Munger campaign is confident he will reach this treshhold.
"Munger has run an absolutely wonderful campaign and has received a lot of coverage from newspapers and radio outlets throughout the state," Howe said.
Often during the election season, Munger and McCrory have worked together to highlight their differences with Perdue, and the lietuenant governor has been a favorite target of both candidates.
"I don't mean to put words in my opponent's mouth, but I am sure that part of the reason he enjoyed our last debate was that it was good to be on stage with someone who actually answers questions," Munger said during an Oct. 8 debate sponsored by UNC-TV in which Perdue did not participate.
Perdue's candidness has been frequently questioned by both her opponents during this election. The McCrory campaign took particular offense to an ad by Perdue suggesting that the Republican mayor supported allowing other states to pay for the right to dump their trash in North Carolina.
"The only garbage coming into North Carolina is the negative ads from Beverly Perdue," McCrory said in an Oct. 13 press release denying the allegation.
The Perdue campaign stands by the charges against McCrory.
"He said that he would have vetoed the Solid Waste Management Act [of 2007]. The net effect of that bill was to prevent waste from being brought into North Carolina from other states," Kochman said. "Had that bill not become law, we would have seen 270-foot-high trash piles being built here in N.C."
Perdue has tried to portray herself as a leader who can relate to the people of North Carolina. Playing up her 20 years of experience as both an educator and a legislator in Raleigh, she has solicited the support of native North Carolinian actor Andy Griffith.
"You know I like to whistle on my way to the lake, but this is no time for whistling. This is a time to gather around a strong leader-Bev Perdue," Griffith said in a Perdue campaign advertisment. "With her help, times'll get better for whistling again."
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