Since the 95th Congress in 1977 under president Jimmy Carter, no party has held the 60-seat "super majority" of U.S. Senate seats needed to defeat a filibuster. Some political analysts say the Democrats could win enough seats this year to push their slim 51-49 majority up to 60.
The U.S. Senate race in North Carolina between Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole, Woman's College '58, of Salisbury and Democratic State Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro is one of the races that could tip the balance. Although the most recent polls indicate Hagan holds a slight advantage-a Public Policy Polling survey released Sun. shows her leading 51 to 44 percent-either candidate could still win, said David Rohde, Ernestine Friedl professor of political science.
Hagan's campaign is optimistic that their candidate will add to the current Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate.
Colleen Flanagan, communications director for the Hagan campaign, said her candidate is ahead because Dole has disapointed her constituents.
"I think years ago people thought that [Sen. Dole's] relationship with the president and her 40-plus years in Washington would bring great things for North Carolina," Flanagan said. "But we have not seen this."
The Cook Political Report classifies Hagan and Dole's battle as one of six "toss- up" races for U.S. Senate. Based on Cook's projections, the Democrats would need to win all six of these races to reach 60 seats.
But the party is much more likely to come up with around 57 seats, said John Aldrich, Pfizer-Pratt University professor of political science.
Although a filibuster-proof Senate would be an historic event, some say such an occurence would mean a lack of balance in Congress and too much power for the Democrats.
Justin Robinette, chair of Duke Students for Elizabeth Dole, wrote in an e-mail that such a majority is a "threat against true and fair government." He added that the higher-than-usual support for Democratic candidates is "just a mood, with too much at stake."
Voting Dole out of office would be detrimental to North Carolina's interests when it comes to policy, he said.
"I fear we may soon find ourselves losing more than what we imagine we are going to gain in this hyped campaign of hope and change," he said, adding that Dole can represent North Carolinians by pushing for a strict immigration policy, more support for veterans, protection of N.C. jobs and an "iron fist-in-ivory glove" approach to special interests.
Hagan has also said that special interests have too much power in Washington, and she has pledged to bring change. Hagan supporters point to her experience as co-chair of the N.C. Senate's Budget Committee as evidence of her ability to ensure financial security for North Carolinians.
When it comes to the actual votes on implementing these policies, however, Aldrich said even a 60-seat majority may not mean that the Democrats would be certain to prevent a filibuster.
"Even if they did get 60, that wouldn't actually be a filibuster-proof Senate-it would be difficult for them to keep all 60 of them together and to get them to vote for cloture on a lot of bills," Aldrich said. He added that controlling so many seats would bring additional advantages to the party.
"It would make the Senate more like the [U.S.] House [of Representatives] where, because the Democrats control a majority, they are able to control most of the procedural maneuvering," Aldrich said.
Although this Senate race has been contentious for months, the campaigns have heated up in the last week. Dole, who has said she has been the subject of numerous negative campaign ads paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, released an ad Oct. 29 titled "Promise," criticizing Hagan and suggesting a link between the state senator and a group called the "Godless Americans." Hagan's campaign responded by filing a defamation lawsuit against Dole's campaign Oct. 30.
In the last few days before the election, Dole has been traveling the state on her "ElizaBUS" tour, visiting local rallies and talking to citizens. Hagan visited Wilmington, New Bern and Goldsboro Monday. She planned to meet voters in Charlotte, Raleigh and Greensboro today.
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