While the military campaign in Iraq continues, leaders around the world are asking for specifics on how the United States and Britain intend to rebuild Iraq.
Critics say the Bush administration has not articulated clearly enough how Iraq will be rebuilt nor how the new government will work. The administration, however, has said that the United States is preparing to run post-war Iraq without the United Nations. "We're going to put in place a better life for the people of Iraq, a representative form of government," U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell told The New York Times.
Lenore Yarger and Joy Johnson, a Duke alumna and a current student who recently traveled to Iraq with international peace groups, expressed concern that an American-built government would not be successful in Iraq.
"I have very little hope for [Iraq] politically. I think the U.S. has interests they want to protect there, and it's not going to lead to a democracy," said Yarger, Trinity '91.
Johnson, a graduate student in education, concurred with Yarger. "I don't believe they will be happy," she said. "I think they would like their own change to come from within."
Yarger visited Iraq with Voices in the Wilderness, a joint US/UK group to end the economic sanctions against the people of Iraq. Johnson went to Iraq with a Christian Peacemaker Team, another pro-peace group.
As soon as the military campaign ends, the new government will be phased in, said Peter Feaver, associate professor of political science. "In the immediate aftermath, it's going to be some form of military government, a transition phase, for about six months," Feaver said. "It looks like they're trying to move as quickly as possible to some sort of government that has representatives from the various groups inside Iraq."
Bruce Jentleson, director of the Sanford Institute of Public Policy and a U.S. foreign policy specialist, said that "political reconstruction has a lot of problematic aspects to it."
Feaver said he expects the political outcome in Iraq to fall somewhere between the administration's vision and the expectations of critics like Johnson and Yarger.
Administration officials are debating how to include the United Nations in the reconstruction process and at what time, most recently stating that the goal is to avoid a U.N. peacekeeping force while encouraging the United Nations to participate in some capacity, including humanitarian efforts.
To be involved in long-term reconstruction efforts in a country occupied by a military force, the United Nations would require Security Council approval. French President Jacques Chirac has threatened to veto any U.N. resolution allowing the United States and Britain to run Iraq after the war. "That would justify the war after the event," Chirac has said.
Yarger expressed concern that the United Nations is not prepared for the post-war task of rebuilding the country. "When I was there, we met [former United Nations humanitarian coordinator in Iraq] Denis Halliday, who used to be in charge of the oil-for-food program at the U.N.... He was appalled with the lack of preparedness within the U.N. to deal with the humanitarian crisis that would result in Iraq in the event of a U.S. invasion," she said.
Feaver articulated a more hopeful outlook, noting there would be a "feeding frenzy" of assorted groups interested in reconstruction contracts. "It's in the interest of a lot of powerful countries for it to be successful," he said. Experts predict the project would be the largest post-war reconstruction effort since the U.S.-initiated Marshall Plan for rebuilding western Europe following World War II.
American companies have already started bidding on contracts to rebuild Iraq, a task that experts estimate will cost up to $100 billion and mandate a several-year-long deployment of U.S. troops in the country. Experts estimate that subcontractors, which can be chosen from any country not currently on the United States' list of nations that sponsor terrorism, will absorb half of the costs of reconstruction.
Non-governmental organizations that have been involved in Iraq for the past 12 years will likely be ready to reenter as soon as the war has ended. Johnson and Yarger said, too, they wish to return to Iraq.
"Iraq is a much easier case than Afghanistan," Feaver said. "There is a middle class. It does have a sound basis for an economy with the second largest oil reserves in the Middle East. That doesn't mean that they'll develop into a full blown Arab-Sweden... but there are reasons to be hopeful."
Material from the New York Times News Service contributed to this story.
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