Letter: Reducing dependence on oil may not reduce terror

Martin Barna's Jan. 14 column, "The Axle of Evil," argues that becoming less dependent on al Qaeda linked OPEC oil is a viable means to cut off terrorist financing, which is an honorable goal but presents myriad challenges.

The fact is that oil will continue to be the primary world energy source for years to come, even if the United States becomes much less dependent on oil and much more efficient at using it. Even with conservation assumptions and the advent of other energy sources, including very aggressive growth rates of 20 percent for renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, the world will need 50 percent more oil in 2020 than it needs today. Developing countries will require 56 percent of world oil demand in 2020 as opposed to only 44 percent today, and 60 percent of this will go toward transportation. My inkling is that this will not come in the form of SUVs. Oil is often cheaper than water, and the cost of energy is the driving force for the growth of most developing economies. So it is a reasonable assumption that the developing world will most likely take up the slack from the industrial world. The question then arises, from where will this oil come? Presently, OPEC constitutes only 40 percent of the world's oil production, while 65 percent of discovered deposits are located in these countries. These two categories, current production and discovered deposits, constitute approximately 82 percent of all recoverable oil resources, so OPEC will likely be a major contributor to the growth of the world economy for decades to come.

It is fair to assume that the hydrogen fuel cell is the likely replacement for the combustion engine. So where do we get the hydrogen? Gasoline powered fuel cells are advantageous because the infrastructure for transporting and storing the hydrogen would not need to change. You could fill up your car at the regular gas station. Oil and car companies, as well as universities, are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into hydrogen cells, and experimental models are already around.

Barna is correct in saying that energy policy initiative is needed, but becoming less dependent on OPEC oil and pouring federal dollars into renewable fuel research may not have a drastic effect on terrorism.