The United States and China are currently engaged in a serious conflict over intellectual property rights.
While the long-standing linkage between trade and human rights has been eliminated, the two countries have legitimate differences over trade issues. These issues must not mask urgent questions about China's uncertain political future in light of Deng Xiaoping's imminent death. Even if China continues on its path of market reform, the United States will have problems dealing with the Middle Kingdom, and those problems will be far more pressing than the current trade dispute.
While Deng has been virtually dead for weeks, it is widely held that his actual demise will trigger a power struggle in Beijing between those who seek to modernize the country through economic expansion and those who are more concerned with maintaining power. Jiang Zemin, currently in charge, is likely to continue with market reform. Indeed, Jiang may go so far as to recognize Taiwan and allow for significant autonomy in Hong Kong (which will be back under China's control in 1997) in an effort to advance China's economic opportunities. If Jiang is successful, the U.S. may find China to be a valuable trading partner and an enormous market for consumer products.
Elements in the party, however, and the military do not want to go this route. It is entirely possible that if Jiang, or someone like him, goes too far in recognizing Taiwan, or even pursues democratic reforms, there may be a civil war in China. Alarmists like to suggest that a Chinese civil war would involve nuclear weapons, but that seems far-fetched. Still, an internal conflict could be catastrophic. If the hard-liners win, the United States and its Pacific allies would face a serious security dilemma. Even without a civil war, a China which follows the status quo will be a thorn in the side of other Pacific powers, including the United States.
Recent events in the Pacific indicate just how much of a danger the Chinese could pose. In October of last year, the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Kitty Hawk engaged in a three-day game of cat and mouse with a Chinese attack submarine. While the Kitty Hawk was beyond the 12-mile limit, the Chinese complained about violations of their territorial waters, as they claim a maritime region much larger than the internationally recognized norm. The incident, not unlike U.S.-Soviet encounters during the Cold War, highlights China's military ambitions.
Beijing is working on new ballistic missile submarines and has purchased Kilo-class subs and advanced fighter aircraft from Russia. Healthy economic growth, combined with the fact that the military owns numerous profitable industries, has resulted in an ever-expanding defense budget.
Military capabilities do not equal intentions, but China has a long-standing dispute with neighboring states over the oil-rich Spratly Islands. The Chinese fought a pitched naval battle with Vietnam in 1988 over rights in the island chain, and just last week occupied a sector claimed by the Philippines. Indeed, China seeks control of the entire South China Sea, which includes strategically vital shipping lanes. Given these activities, China's efforts at developing a robust blue-water navy indicate expansionist intentions.
Further, a hard-line government might be interested in retaking Taiwan by force.
The Taiwan scenario is not unlikely as long as the Chinese do not expect U.S. intervention. Further, China's military buildup and aggressive activity make neighbors like Japan and Australia nervous. A regional arms race in both conventional and nuclear weapons is likely as China's activities are yet another motivation for a Japanese nuclear deterrent.
Of a more immediate nature, China continues to export its increasingly sophisticated military technology to Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Libya and other troublemakers with little regard to international pressure. A shift to democracy could ameliorate these problems, but such a course is unlikely in the near future.
China faces numerous internal threats to its integrity, reducing the chances that the hard-liners will allow even a Singapore-style democracy. The residents of Hong Kong are certain to be a source of trouble after 1997. Tibet still seeks independence. The Muslim regions in central Asia are breeding ground for Islamic fundamentalism, especially since Iranian operatives are proselytizing there. Democracy could very well tear the country apart, which would certainly be harmful to foreign economic interests. Thus, the United States must push Beijing to be a reliable trading partner, deter military expansion in the Pacific, and allow China to evolve on its own.
With over a billion people, nuclear weapons and a rapidly expanding economy, China is a major player on the world stage. While the best-case scenario for China involves some sort of democratic reform, the Chinese have interests which are at odds with those of its neighbors. The United States must be prepared to participate in China's markets while hedging against the possibility of a more militant and aggressive regime. A strong naval presence in the region is therefore imperative.
If China turns out to be friendly, so much the better. But it is always safer to prepare for the worst.
Barry Rothberg is a Trinity senior.
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