Every week, the Blue Zone will make a take on Duke sports—whether that take may be hot, cold or lukewarm. This week's take is in from Ben Leonard:
When Daniel Jones runs well, Duke wins.
Dating back to the start of 2017, the Blue Devils have had a simple formula for success—get the quarterback making plays in space. That has come in a variety of ways, although primarily through designed runs.
In Duke's eight wins during that stretch, Jones has averaged more than four yards per carry and nearly 50 yards per games. In the Blue Devils’ five losses (excluding a storm-drenched slogfest against Virginia Tech), Jones has averaged just 1.8 yards per carry and fewer than 20 yards per game.
And it’s not like head coach David Cutcliffe has abandoned Jones’ legs in Duke’s losses—Jones averaged just one carry fewer in losses—efficiency has been the name of the game. That has stood even when controlling for opponents’ ability at stopping the run.
The teams Jones beat actually ranked higher on average in national rushing defense than the teams he lost to—and his two best rushing games came against the two top statistical rushing defenses he faced, Northwestern and Northern Illinois.
Once again, Jones’ rushing prowess propelled Duke comfortably past Army Friday night. Jones had a remarkably efficient day throwing the football, connecting on 13-of-17 pass attempts while still carrying the ball 10 times for 43 yards and a score.
When Jones' legs are working, it also opens up passing lanes for the now-junior as it did Friday—in wins, he has averaged a QBR of 65, as compared to just 39 in losses.
If Duke wants to take it to the next level this season, it will need Jones running free.
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Managing Editor 2018-19, 2019-2020 Features & Investigations Editor
A member of the class of 2020 hailing from San Mateo, Calif., Ben is The Chronicle's Towerview Editor and Investigations Editor. Outside of the Chronicle, he is a public policy major working towards a journalism certificate, has interned at the Tampa Bay Times and NBC News and frequents Pitchforks.