Each day leading up to the first round of the NCAA tournament, The Chronicle will preview one of the four regions in the bracket, touching on the true contenders in the region and potential bracket-busting Cinderellas. After starting with the South yesterday, we continue in the Midwest:
The No. 1 seed: Kansas Jayhawks
Another year, another Big 12 regular-season title for Kansas.
Starting in 2005, the Jayhawks have earned at least a share of the top spot in the conference each season, even after they dropped two of their first six home contests in league play this season. Bill Self's squad finished strong to win eight of its nine most recent games en route to sole possession of first place and yet another Big 12 tournament title.
Kansas is led by a national player of the year candidate in senior Devonte' Graham, who averages 17.3 points along with 7.5 assists per game and shoots better than 41 percent from downtown. And despite sitting for just 83 minutes the entire season, the senior from Raleigh has stayed consistent, scoring 26 at then-No. 6 Texas Tech late in the season and hitting double digits in every game but three this year.
Graham is a major reason why the Jayhawks shoot 40.3 percent on 3-pointers as a team. Kansas' attack has proven itself to be efficient from all over the court with a 58.1 effective field goal percentage—good for sixth in the nation.
At times, the Jayhawks have lapsed defensively. They allowed 80 or more points in six of 18 Big 12 games and in all but one of their losses, opponents have reached that mark. None of their guards—Graham, Malik Newman or Lagerald Vick—are particularly good on-ball defenders. Furthermore, until they have sophomore seven-footer Udoka Azubuike back at full strength following an MCL sprain, it's hard to know if they'll be able to successfully defend the paint.
The other contenders: It might get bloody—blue bloody, that is
There is no region as top-heavy as the Midwest.
Three of the four teams that participate in the annual Champions Classic—Kansas, No. 2 seed Duke and third-seeded Michigan State, are all very likely candidates to reach the Sweet 16 in Omaha. Even if those teams get a bit of a test during their second-round contests, it's hard to see any major upsets that would prevent the top seeds from getting to regional semifinals.
The Blue Devils, however, could get the most interesting contest during the first weekend. If the Duke plays Oklahoma, expect NBA scouts to pack into PPG Paints Arena with potential lottery pick Trae Young playing opposite fellow top prospects Marvin Bagley III, Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr.
And if it's Rhode Island, that's a disciplined team who could challenge for the Blue Devils for 30 minutes even without the bodies to match up inside.
The potential Cinderella: New Mexico State
This is certainly a trendy first-round upset pick with No. 5 Clemson likely somewhat overseeded due to a strong start to the season before Donte Grantham's ACL injury in the middle of ACC play. But the Aggies are a legit threat to make the second weekend of the tournament, for three big reasons.
First, this is a group of winners. New Mexico State is 28-5 on the season with just two losses since the start of the calendar year, both coming on the road. And against tournament teams, the Aggies are 2-0, having topped both Davidson and Miami in close victories during December's Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu.
Second, New Mexico State is experienced. The Aggies start three seniors alongside a junior shooting guard and sophomore point guard AJ Harris and they bring another junior off the bench as their sixth man.
Lastly, New Mexico State defends supremely well. It ranks 14th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency per basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy and the Aggies limit opponents beyond the to just better than 30 percent shooting.
The regional narrative: Break out the chalk
Most fans are going to have the Jayhawks, Duke and the Spartans in their Sweet 16—and that's totally fine. But once it gets to that point, throw all your predictions out the window.
The Blue Devils and head coach Mike Krzyzewski have had Tom Izzo's number, but if it weren't for an epic outing by Grayson Allen in November, Duke may have not beaten Michigan State when the teams met in Chicago earlier this year. Kansas likely has the easiest road to the Elite 8 of any No. 1 seed, but with either one of those teams on the opposite bench in the regional final, it's anyone's guess who will move on to San Antonio.
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Twitter: @mpgladstone13
A junior from just outside Philadelphia, Mitchell is probably reminding you how the Eagles won the Super Bowl this year and that the Phillies are definitely on the rebound. Outside of The Chronicle, he majors in Economics, minors in Statistics and is working toward the PJMS certificate, in addition to playing trombone in the Duke University Marching Band. And if you're getting him a sandwich with beef and cheese outside the state of Pennsylvania, you best not call it a "Philly cheesesteak."