After dispatching Iona 89-67 in their NCAA Tournament opener, the second-seeded Blue Devils will face off against Rhode Island hoping to avoid the same fate the team suffered last year: falling to a No. 7 seed. Here are three keys to a Duke win:
Win the turnover battle
The Rams are an experienced team, starting four seniors and a sophomore. Over the years, they have learned to be a cohesive defensive force—which may pose problems for a young Duke squad. Boasting the 36th best defense in the country according to statistician Ken Pomeroy, Rhode Island one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. Meanwhile, the Rams are very careful with the ball, and as result, are second in the nation in turnover margin at +5.2.
On the other hand, the Blue Devils’ struggles in taking care of the ball are well documented. They are 233rd overall, losing the turnover battle by 0.6 on average. With four players averaging over two turnovers per game, it is going to be critical for Duke to make smart plays and maintain possession.
Ultimately, the game may come down to the decision-making of Trevon Duval and Grayson Allen—both of whom have had turnover woes in critical games of the season. If they play similar to their performance against Iona, with a combined 17:5 assist to turnover ratio, the offense should run smoothly. If not, it could be a long flight back to Durham for them.
Execute a fluid zone scheme
After Iona’s four guard lineup found holes in the Blue Devil’s 2-3 zone early, many viewers were left wondering if any adjustments would be made. Like all great coaches, head coach Mike Krzyzewski modified the defense into a primarily 3-2 zone. Luckily for Duke, that experience against Iona may come in handy against a Rams team that also plays four guards on the perimeter and likes to hit shots from deep.
It is anyone’s guess as to how the Blue Devils will open defensively, but they must be able to operate effectively in all of their different zone schemes if they hope to limit Rhode Island.
Feed the big men
The Rams’ four guard lineup allows for space in the paint for Duke’s big men.
Much like Iona, Rhode Island’s lone starting forward is just 6-foot-8, which pales in comparison to the 6-foot-10 and 6-foot-11 frames of Wendell Carter and Marvin Bagley, respectively.
The duo combined for 31 points and 15 rebounds against the Gaels and will hope to do much of the same against a Rhode Island team that was outrebounded by Oklahoma 54-41 and has struggled mightily on the defensive glass. If the Blue Devils, one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, can find second-chance opportunities and work efficiently in the paint, it will limit the burden placed on a streaky shooting squad.
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