2018 NCAA tournament regional preview: West

Each day leading up to the first round of the NCAA tournament, The Chronicle will preview one of the four regions in the bracket, touching on the true contenders in the region and potential bracket-busting Cinderellas. After starting with the South, we looked at the Midwest, the East, and now finally, the West:  

The No. 1 seed: Xavier Musketeers

For the first time in school history, Xavier earned a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance after losing just two of its final 15 games to wrap up the season. What they do with that opportunity largely rests on senior guard Trevon Bluiett. 

The 6-foot-6 guard is averaging 19.5 points and 5.7 rebounds per game while shooting over 40 percent from beyond the arc for a team that has boasted one of the best offenses in the nation. Classmate J.P. Marcura adds even more experience and scoring at the wing, contributing 12.2 points per game for the Musketeers, which made a run to the Elite Eight as a No. 11 seed last year. 

The Achilles heel for Xavier all year has been its subpar defense, which disappeared in two drubbings at the hands of Villanova and has dogged the Musketeers since November. A capable defense, or a lack thereof, will be key if Xavier is to make the most of its top seed and make it past the Elite Eight. 

The other contenders: The defending champs are eyeing a third-straight Final Four in a stacked region

The clearest obstacle to Xavier’s first-ever trip to the Final Four is No. 2 seed North Carolina, which is coming off a close loss to No. 1 overall seed Virginia in the ACC tournament. 

The Tar Heels are coming off back-to-back trips to the final weekend in the Big Dance, and with a wealth of experience, could be one of the toughest outs in the entire tournament. Senior guards Joel Berry II and Theo Pinson anchor North Carolina on the wings, and junior forward Luke Maye has been outstanding down low this season. 

The Tar Heels’ weakness lies in their defense, which ranks just 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, compared to their 4th-ranked offense in offensive efficiency. Nevertheless, FiveThirtyEight.com gives the defending champs a 25 percent chance to make it out of the West, higher than Xavier at 17 percent. 

Although North Carolina arguably represents the strongest all-around team in the region, there are several other contenders who can give both the Musketeers and the Tar Heels trouble. 

No. 3 seed Michigan lurks as a potential Sweet 16 matchup for the Tar Heels after pulling off its second straight surprise run to the Big 10 tournament title. But while many people are eyeing a potential upset by the Wolverines, they will potentially have to get through a pair of underrated teams in the opening weekend first: No. 14 seed Montana and No. 6 seed Houston. 

Houston just nearly pulled off an upset of Cincinnati, the No. 2 seed in the South region, in the American Conference championship game last weekend and is ranked 17th in the nation, per basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy’s rankings.  

Last but certainly not least, Gonzaga has also been under-seeded as the No. 4 seed in the West, a slap in the face for a team that finished the season ranked eighth in the nation in Pomeroy's overall adjusted efficiency. The Bulldogs certainly will have some extra motivation to get another shot at North Carolina in the Elite Eight after falling to the Tar Heels in the championship game last season. Gonzaga has a balanced offense that features five players averaging double-digit scoring along with one of the best defenses in the country. 

The potential Cinderella: Montana

Though there is no team that is an especially exciting pick to find its glass slipper in the West region this year, No. 14 seed Montana is the best bet to go dancing beyond the opening weekend. 

In order for the Grizzlies to make a run, they will need to take down a hot Michigan team and then likely an underrated Houston squad to reach the Sweet Sixteen. But Montana was also a better team this season than its seed might suggest—the Grizzlies are ranked higher than any other 14 seed in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings at 71, higher than lower seeds such as Buffalo, South Dakota State and UNC Greensboro.

Guard Michael Oguine was the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year for a team that has lost just twice since Dec. 22. Montana will have a tall order to fill in the opening weekend alone, but if it can knock off a Michigan team that is coming off a long layover from the B10 tournament, it is the best shot for a Cinderella story. 

The regional narrative: Parity

To many, the West region appears to be the weakest in the tournament. Xavier, North Carolina, Michigan and Gonzaga are all being given about equal odds to advance to the Final Four, but are clumped together beneath a number of more dynamic teams spread across the other regions. 

Besides those four, there are few teams that have given much evidence they could make a serious Cinderella run to the regional final. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be some upsets in the opening weekend. San Diego State could give Houston some trouble in the first round, Montana has the potential to cool off the Wolverines after a long break and even Missouri could make some noise if Michael Porter Jr. is able to show some flashes of brilliance after missing nearly the entire season. 

At the top, the lack of one truly dominant team means this region is wide open. 

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