Take of the week: Despite success, Duke is not better without Bagley

<p>Duke is 3-0 without Marvin Bagley III, who's out nursing a mild knee sprain.</p>

Duke is 3-0 without Marvin Bagley III, who's out nursing a mild knee sprain.

Every week, the Blue Zone will make a take on college basketball. This week's hot take is in from staff writer Andrew Levy, refuting recent claims that Duke is a better team without its top recruit in the lineup.

I do not think this team is better without Marvin Bagley III. This is not a case of the Ewing theory, Bill Simmons’ theory where a team plays better without its star player. Bagley is a top-five player in college basketball and before his absence the Blue Devils had the second most efficient offense in KenPom history. However, while Duke is not a better team without him, Bagley’s time off has helped reorient the Blue Devils for better success when he returns. 

Since Bagley has been out, Grayson Allen has been the primary ball handler for Duke. Allen’s usage rate this year and his player efficiency rating during conference play have both been the lowest of his career. Since Bagley’s injury, both Allen’s usage rate and efficiency rating have gone up a full point. Against North Carolina the Jacksonville, Fla., native attempted just one shot in the paint and only two free throws. In the three games since Bagley’s knee injury, Allen has been more aggressive offensively, averaging about three shots in the paint and six free throws per game. 

With Bagley out of the starting lineup, Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski has been able to tinker with the lineups and give more minutes to his bench. With Trevon Duval struggling, Krzyzewski initially went with the starting lineup that included Marques Bolden and Alex O’Connell. Bolden, who is second on the team in block percentage, has given Duke an extra defensive presence with his increase in minutes. With the shift to zone defense, Krzyzewski has relied more on Jack White and Javin DeLaurier for key minutes for the low wing positions in the zone. Since Bagley’s absence, Duke has jumped from 78th to 41st in KenPom’s adjusted defense rankings. 

The removal of Bagley from the lineup has given an increased confidence to the players around him. Allen has been much more aggressive without him in the rotation. Duval has since returned to the starting lineup and has been much improved, cutting down on his turnovers and even chipping in with 12 points against Clemson. The role players also have been given a chance to develop in time for both the ACC and NCAA tournament. Considering all the development behind the scenes for Duke, the injection of Bagley back into the lineup should give an added boost to a team on the rise, not regress the team back to its state before his injury.

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