Unreasonable expectations

I frowned the first time I heard it in March.

As I was watching Duke’s season slip away against Oregon in the Sweet 16 from my freshman dorm’s common room, someone in the room shrugged off the loss with brighter days on the horizon, saying, “We’ll probably win the national championship next year.”

I have heard that sentiment echoed many times since, and it represents a dangerous attitude that could make a potentially storied season more stressful than fun for Blue Devil fans.

I encourage fans to aspire or hope for a national title this year, or any year for that matter. It is possible and maybe even probable that the Blue Devils are the best team in the nation this year, and a national championship is a legitimate goal. 

But it should not be an expectation.

This irrational optimism has become almost universal at Duke since head coach Mike Krzyzewski locked up the top recruiting class in the nation—including two of the top three freshmen in the country. And with official practice already underway and Countdown to Craziness in less than two weeks, the hype is reaching a crescendo.

Based on the general atmosphere surrounding the team, you would think a trip to Phoenix next April for the Final Four is a foregone conclusion and a sixth national championship banner in the rafters at Cameron Indoor Stadium is easily within reach. There have even been murmurs of a potential undefeated 40-0 season, a feat that has never been accomplished before.

The high hopes are not without reason. Bovada made the Blue Devils the preseason favorite to win the national championship with 4/1 odds last week, and ESPN’s unofficial preseason rankings last week slotted them at No. 1.

But the best team usually does not win the national championship. The AP’s preseason No. 1 team has not been the last team standing in April since 2009, when North Carolina won its last title.

If the oddsmakers are right that Duke has 4/1 odds to win it all, then the field is much more likely than the Blue Devils to win. There are several other legitimate contenders across the nation, as Krzyzewski noted in his press conference to kick off the season last Tuesday.

“Our goal is to win the national championship,” Krzyzewski said. “We have a team that if it’s healthy, that’s a legitimate goal. We’re not the only ones in the country who have that legitimate goal.”

One of those teams is Kentucky, with 15/2 odds to win the national title, but the Wildcats were in Duke’s position as a clear frontrunner just two years ago.

Kentucky was the odds-on favorite to win the 2015 national title, and the anticipation of an undefeated season grew with every win. That team, like Duke’s this year, probably had the most talent in the country. Six of its players were selected in the 2015 NBA Draft, and dominant center Karl-Anthony Towns was the No. 1 overall pick.

The Wildcats accomplished a lot that year, rolling through the regular season unbeaten and capturing the SEC regular season and tournament championships. But most of the success did not get the recognition it deserved as it happened. All that mattered was the elusive 40-0 record, and when Kentucky lost in the Final Four to Wisconsin, the rest of the year seemed hollow.

A season can be a success for a storied program even if it peaks in February, as long as it is a high peak. Many fans will look back on the 2015-16 campaign fondly for the improbable regular-season win against the Tar Heels and Grayson Allen’s buzzer-beater against Virginia.

Those games could be appreciated as isolated events, without concern for their implications on the future, because postseason expectations were not sky-high for the Blue Devils after a fractured foot sidelined power forward Amile Jefferson for the season. Fans should approach games in November, January and February this year with the same attitude.

Anxiously looking ahead to March Madness, when one off night can result in elimination, is not a fun way to follow the season. Duke’s year is more likely than not to end in disappointment, and if the Blue Devils come up short, it will be too late to go back in time and celebrate the inevitable moments and big wins that define the regular season.

If anybody knows better, it should be Duke fans, because the 2015 national championship banner does not reside in Lexington, Ky. 

It hangs in the rafters at Cameron.