Seventeen days ago, Duke and North Carolina played the latest thriller in the 95-year old Tobacco Road rivalry. The teams combined for 182 points as the then-No. 4 Blue Devils pushed past the then-No. 15 Tar Heels in overtime after a late comeback.
After building a double-digit lead in that game, Duke found itself in a double-digit hole in the second half and was fortunate to mount a furious rally to force the extra session and win. As the Blue Devils prepare for the teams' next meeting at the Dean E. Smith Center Saturday, there are numerous adjustments they will need to make.
When No. 3 Duke travels to Chapel Hill to take on No. 19 North Carolina at 9 p.m. in the 240th edition of the rivalry, they know a repeat of the mistakes in two major areas Feb. 18 at home could be more than enough to halt their 10-game winning streak Saturday night in the regular season finale.
"If we want to beat them, we've got to make some changes. For us the huge thing is how we rebound," head coach Mike Krzyzewski said before practice Friday. "They had 62 points in the paint against us and it was transition and a lot of it was offensive rebounding. They had 19 offensive rebounds against us. So defensive rebounding and transition defense and we've got to hit some shots."
Krzyzewski and his staff are concerned with the damage the North Carolina post quartet of Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks and Joel James can do, but the 68-year old revealed Friday that Duke (27-3, 14-3 in the ACC) will still start its small lineup with Justise Winslow at the four. The 6-foot-6, 225-pound swingman has averaged 15.8 points and 8.6 rebounds per game during the Blue Devils' winning streak, but will be tested by Johnson and Meeks. Both players stand at 6-foot-9 and combined for 36 points on 15-of-20 shooting and 19 rebounds in the game at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Krzyzewski said his team's reliance on Jahlil Okafor to rebound against the Tar Heels (21-9, 11-6) was "a false dependency"—the 6-foot-11 center sprained his ankle in the first half and struggled with mobility throughout the contest—so Duke's ability to help its National Player of the Year candidate will again be critical. In Wednesday's dominant 94-51 win against Wake Forest, the Blue Devils got plenty of contributions from other sources. Grayson Allen and Matt Jones combined for 44 points as Okafor attempted just two shots and finished with six points.
Although more than half of his eight-man rotation is battling ankle injuries, Krzyzewski said he still plans to use a few wrinkles with all eight players expected to contribute.
"In these last few games we've tried some things not only for opponent, but we might be using in the NCAA tournament," Krzyzewski said. "We could look at a thing or two for that too so [in a] big-game environment [we get] a chance to see if we can execute something."
For the Duke tandem of Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook—which outscored the Tar Heels' starting backcourt of Marcus Paige and Justin Jackson 44-7 in the first game—executing means taking advantage of the extra room they get on both ends when playing with two other quick players on the court. The duo was able to do so to spark their team's comeback win at home, and will once again look to control tempo against a bigger team.
Junior captain Amile Jefferson has seen his role diminish as Duke's small lineup has proven effective, but even with their only true power forward on the bench to start the game the Blue Devils still like their chances.
"It definitely makes us a little bit smaller, but at the same that just means [Winslow] has a bigger guy guarding him," Jones said. "We'll try to take advantage of that."
Jones and Cook dominated the first meeting on the perimeter, but Krzyzewski cited the play of Nate Britt—who had 11 points off the bench—and freshman Joel Berry II as reasons why there could be a different story Saturday night. Swingman J.P. Tokoto also hurt Duke in the first contest with his activity in the open court.
Regardless of what production Tar Heel head coach Roy Williams gets from the guard rotation of Britt, Berry II, Tokoto and Jackson, North Carolina's best chance to counter the Blue Devils' guard play is Preseason ACC Player of the Year Marcus Paige.
The junior has not scored at the clip that landed him All-ACC honors last season, but still leads his team in scoring at 13.2 points per contest. Despite Paige's struggles and his 2-of-11 effort against Duke earlier this season, Cook—who will likely see the majority of the time guarding his 6-foot-1 counterpart—knows what could happen if they get careless.
"With him, he can score quickly. It doesn't matter how he's shooting the ball—if he sees it go in, it could be a long second half or long last 10 minutes for the opposing team," Cook said.
By the time tip-off rolls around Saturday, the latest edition of the Tobacco Road rivalry will have been dissected by analysts around the country as one of the final major games of the college basketball regular season. But if the first contest was any indication, game plans can only take a team so far when the two shades of blue get together, with regional bragging rights and momentum entering the postseason on the line.
"Records go out the window, rankings go out the window every time we play each other.... That's how passionate the rivalry is," Cook said.
Ryan Hoerger contributed reporting.
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