Familiar foes await in South

In pursuit of its fifth national championship, Duke, the No. 2 seed in the South, will face what looks to be a very daunting path to New Orleans through a region that is stockpiled with future NBA players.

Luckily for the reeling Blue Devils (27-6), who have lost two of their past three games, their tournament journey begins close to home in Greensboro, N.C. In two of the past three years, Duke has played in their home state during the first weekend of the tournament and is 4-0 in that span.

In the round of 64, Duke will face Lehigh, who hasn’t lost a game since February 9th. The Mountain Hawks (26-7) earned their way into the dance after upsetting Bucknell in the Patriot League championship game.

The Blue Devils’ vulnerable perimeter defense will face the difficult task of slowing down Lehigh’s C.J. McCollum, a 6-foot-3 combo guard who averages nearly 22 points per game and is on NBA scouts’ radars.

“[McCollum] would be an outstanding guard in our league,” Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski said.

In the paint, the Blue Devils have a significant advantage. With only three players taller than 6-foot-8, Lehigh’s frontcourt may be overwhelmed by Duke’s athletic post players. The Blue Devils’ superior size should allow them to advance to the round of 32 for the fifth consecutive year.

In the third round, Duke would face the winner of Xavier and Notre Dame. Given the Fighting Irish’s lack of all-around athleticism, Notre Dame is a much better matchup for the Blue Devils. Furthermore, the Irish are primarily a half-court oriented team and their undersized post players should allow Duke to dominate the glass.

If the Musketeers defeat the Irish, however, Xavier’s dynamic backcourt could present problems for Duke defensively. Senior Tu Holloway—the best guard in the Atlantic 10—junior Mark Lyons and freshman Dezmine Wells lead the team in scoring. Their ability to get to the rim and shoot prolifically from long range could propel the Musketeers to the Sweet 16.

If the Blue Devils win their first two games, they will likely face either No. 3 seed Baylor or No. 6 UNLV in Atlanta. Since falling to Duke in the Elite Eight in 2010, Bears head coach Scott Drew has upgraded the talent on his roster substantially. The Bears now have NBA-caliber length and athleticism, which could bother Duke. Underclassmen Perry Jones and former Duke recruit Quincy Miller are lanky, versatile wing-forwards with the ability to handle the ball and shoot from distance. Both are projected to be first-round NBA draft picks this year.

UNLV is perhaps the most experienced team in the region. The team’s athletic fast-break attack, which led them a convincing win over North Carolina earlier in the season, makes the Rebels a trendy pick among college basketball fans to go deep into the tournament. Do-it-all small forward Mike Moser spearheads head coach Dave Rice’s offense. A 6-foot-8 wing who is effective inside and out, Moser is a matchup nightmare for the small forward-less Blue Devils.

Also lurking in the South region is No. 1 overall seed Kentucky. Arguably head coach John Calipari’s best team ever, the Wildcats have looked like a juggernaut virtually all season long and feature four likely first-round NBA draft picks in Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The Wildcats have a very difficult path to New Orleans, however, and their inexperience will be put to the test early. In the third round, Kentucky could face defending champion Connecticut, one of the few teams in the country with the sheer talent to go toe-to-toe with the Wildcats. Although the Huskies have been wildly inconsistent and underwhelming much of the season, they have won three of their past four games since head coach Jim Calhoun returned to the bench and may be playing their best basketball of the season.

If Kentucky can advance to the Sweet 16, there is the potential for a rematch with fourth-seeded Indiana, who knocked off the Wildcats in early December on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer. Wichita State—the No. 5 seed—also has the offensive firepower to make it a potential Cinderella, as the Shockers average 77.7 points per game.

Provided the top two teams can advance to the Elite Eight, the potential Duke-Kentucky matchup would occur on the 20th anniversary of the two programs’ iconic game in the 1992 East Regional final. In that memorable contest, Christian Laettner’s last-second shot lifted the Blue Devils past Kentucky.

Although Kentucky is the consensus favorite to advance to New Orleans, the South is thought to be the most difficult region in the bracket given the quality from top to bottom, which could also make it the most unpredictable.

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