On Wednesday, June 25, at approximately 8 p.m., Eastern Standard Time, David Stern, commissioner of the National Basketball Association, will step up to the podium at the Hive in Charlotte and announce, "The [insert the name of your favorite bad pro basketball team here] select Tim Duncan, from Wake Forest University, with the first pick of the 1997 NBA draft."
Accepting that nobody can predict the future, this event is about as much a certainty in the world of sports as the AFC losing the Super Bowl and Albert Belle getting in trouble with the law. With the NBA regular season winding down, those teams mired at the bottom of the standings aren't battling for playoff berths but ping pong balls. In most years, these franchises would be fairly content with a top three, five or even ten selection, but in '97 anything other than the No. 1 pick will be considered a major disappointment.
The reason for all this clamoring is Mr. Duncan, the All-Everything center for eighth-ranked Wake Forest. What sets him apart from the last five top draft picks, and much of the projected 1997 crop, is that he has played all four years of college basketball. This season he could be competing against Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace and Jeff McInnis at North Carolina and Joe Smith at Maryland, but all four opted for the NBA before graduation and are now weathering ups and downs, and making millions, on and off the court.
Duncan, meanwhile, is taking psychology classes in Winston-Salem, preparing for the Atlantic Coast Conference and NCAA Tournaments and a shot at a national championship. As a result, many have held up the Demon Deacon center as proof that talented underclassmen shouldn't leave school early. But Duncan's coach, Dave Odom, doesn't believe that his star's choice would be right for every player.
"The truth of the matter is that Tim Duncan stayed for his own reasons," Odom said. "He looked at his situation last spring and said, 'It's right for me that I finish my education, it's right for me that I finish my college experience, it's right for me that I finish my college basketball eligibility.' [But] I think... the thing that we can learn from that is not that his decision should be emulated by those behind him, because I think that each one has the right to make his own decision based on his own circumstances at the time."
Perhaps Duncan made a different decision from his basketball brethren simply because he is different from them. Born on the tiny island of St. Croix, a U.S. territory in the Virgin Islands, he was a champion swimmer until he switched sports in ninth grade. And the center won't turn 21 until Apr. 25, having skipped the third grade.
St. Croix has never been known for producing basketball players-only four coaches, one for every indoor court on the island, even recruited Duncan. Hartford and Delaware State were two; the third was Providence, whose coach at the time, Rick Barnes, now has to face Duncan in the ACC, and the fourth was Wake Forest, where he now dominates in the frontcourt.
"With the difference between him now and him then, I don't think anybody could have predicted at the time what Tim has done, becoming the special player that he is," Barnes, currently with Clemson, said. "I think everyone that recruited him at that point in time liked a lot of things about him but I don't think that anyone could project... he would become one of the premier players in college basketball."
Because of Duncan's lack of experience and competition, there were many doubts about the center when he first arrived in Winston-Salem. In his debut against Alaska-Anchorage, he didn't attempt any field goals or score any points. But Duncan still managed to finish his freshman campaign averaging 9.8 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, all while leading the ACC in blocked shots.
The center could have left school after his sophomore year and been at the very least a lottery pick, if not No. 1 overall. But he has used his four years to improve statistically from one season to the next and to expand his game. At the same time, Wake Forest has had unprecedented success on the basketball court-Duncan is the winningest player in school history.
"He sees himself as a center, but at the same time, now that he's been in the league and played for four years, he's been able to do other things," Maryland coach Gary Williams said. "He's become a great passer, he's not afraid to put it on the floor and obviously the other things, shot blocking and rebounding, have been there. But for me, his versatility really sets him apart from a lot of inside players. I think looking at it not from a competitive situation but just as a basketball fan, he's really helped to make some other players on Wake's team better. That's how you measure the great ones, on how they can lift a team."
What is more difficult to measure is Duncan's impact on the college basketball world as a whole. Wake Forest has several talented players, but it probably wouldn't be a national championship contender without No. 21. Had the center left for the NBA, the ACC wouldn't seem quite as strong, owning one fewer top 10, or maybe top 25, team, and Duke's win in Winston-Salem wouldn't have meant anywhere near as much. As big-time players continue to forgo their eligibility, the NCAA could have lost another marquee name to showcase. But Odom sees the implications of Duncan's decision reaching far beyond the basketball court.
"I think as Americans in this modern day we have a tendency that we're in such a hurry, and most of it is out of fear," Odom said. "We're afraid not to make that big step into the NBA or the business world because we're afraid that the money won't be there in another year or two years or whatever it takes us to get there. We're afraid if we don't do it now we're going to be injured and we won't have the ability to do that or nobody would want us. We're afraid if we don't go ahead we'll disappoint our families or others will see us as being less aggressive.
"I think Tim's decision shows us the other side. It's okay to be patient. It's okay to enjoy the moment. It's okay to be who we are today and not be afraid of what may happen should we not take that step. And that's the legacy, that's the lesson his decision to stay has left."
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